A vote on the Brexit backstop
The backstop aiming to prevent a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is the main sticking point in the Brexit negotiations between the UK government and the EU. It appears that the UK fears that they will be indefinitely trapped in a customs-union type arrangement with no way of exiting it. The EU is presumably concerned that a British government would unilaterally end the backstop to the detriment of citizens in Northern Ireland.
A potential option that I was discussing in private was allowing Northern Ireland a referendum on options if the UK determines that they want to exit the customs union without some mutually acceptable alternative arrangements being in place. The obvious options would be
- remain in the customs union (and implement a customs border in the Irish Sea)
- leave the customs union (and implement a customs border with Ireland)
- (perhaps there are other additional options)
I haven't seen such an idea discussed - has it been brought up in negotiations/discussions? What would be the main problems with such a scenario?
brexit northern-ireland
New contributor
add a comment |
The backstop aiming to prevent a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is the main sticking point in the Brexit negotiations between the UK government and the EU. It appears that the UK fears that they will be indefinitely trapped in a customs-union type arrangement with no way of exiting it. The EU is presumably concerned that a British government would unilaterally end the backstop to the detriment of citizens in Northern Ireland.
A potential option that I was discussing in private was allowing Northern Ireland a referendum on options if the UK determines that they want to exit the customs union without some mutually acceptable alternative arrangements being in place. The obvious options would be
- remain in the customs union (and implement a customs border in the Irish Sea)
- leave the customs union (and implement a customs border with Ireland)
- (perhaps there are other additional options)
I haven't seen such an idea discussed - has it been brought up in negotiations/discussions? What would be the main problems with such a scenario?
brexit northern-ireland
New contributor
7
The obvious issue would be that there was something close to a civil war going on in NI until quite recently. Both sides of that conflict can be expected to vote on opposing sides. Such a referendum could thus rekindle the conflict.
– Roland
16 hours ago
1
AFAIK the Good Friday Agreement gives Ireland the option to call for a referendum of unification.
– Martin Schröder
4 hours ago
add a comment |
The backstop aiming to prevent a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is the main sticking point in the Brexit negotiations between the UK government and the EU. It appears that the UK fears that they will be indefinitely trapped in a customs-union type arrangement with no way of exiting it. The EU is presumably concerned that a British government would unilaterally end the backstop to the detriment of citizens in Northern Ireland.
A potential option that I was discussing in private was allowing Northern Ireland a referendum on options if the UK determines that they want to exit the customs union without some mutually acceptable alternative arrangements being in place. The obvious options would be
- remain in the customs union (and implement a customs border in the Irish Sea)
- leave the customs union (and implement a customs border with Ireland)
- (perhaps there are other additional options)
I haven't seen such an idea discussed - has it been brought up in negotiations/discussions? What would be the main problems with such a scenario?
brexit northern-ireland
New contributor
The backstop aiming to prevent a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is the main sticking point in the Brexit negotiations between the UK government and the EU. It appears that the UK fears that they will be indefinitely trapped in a customs-union type arrangement with no way of exiting it. The EU is presumably concerned that a British government would unilaterally end the backstop to the detriment of citizens in Northern Ireland.
A potential option that I was discussing in private was allowing Northern Ireland a referendum on options if the UK determines that they want to exit the customs union without some mutually acceptable alternative arrangements being in place. The obvious options would be
- remain in the customs union (and implement a customs border in the Irish Sea)
- leave the customs union (and implement a customs border with Ireland)
- (perhaps there are other additional options)
I haven't seen such an idea discussed - has it been brought up in negotiations/discussions? What would be the main problems with such a scenario?
brexit northern-ireland
brexit northern-ireland
New contributor
New contributor
edited 4 hours ago
Martin Schröder
1,0371931
1,0371931
New contributor
asked 16 hours ago
GremlinGremlin
1285
1285
New contributor
New contributor
7
The obvious issue would be that there was something close to a civil war going on in NI until quite recently. Both sides of that conflict can be expected to vote on opposing sides. Such a referendum could thus rekindle the conflict.
– Roland
16 hours ago
1
AFAIK the Good Friday Agreement gives Ireland the option to call for a referendum of unification.
– Martin Schröder
4 hours ago
add a comment |
7
The obvious issue would be that there was something close to a civil war going on in NI until quite recently. Both sides of that conflict can be expected to vote on opposing sides. Such a referendum could thus rekindle the conflict.
– Roland
16 hours ago
1
AFAIK the Good Friday Agreement gives Ireland the option to call for a referendum of unification.
– Martin Schröder
4 hours ago
7
7
The obvious issue would be that there was something close to a civil war going on in NI until quite recently. Both sides of that conflict can be expected to vote on opposing sides. Such a referendum could thus rekindle the conflict.
– Roland
16 hours ago
The obvious issue would be that there was something close to a civil war going on in NI until quite recently. Both sides of that conflict can be expected to vote on opposing sides. Such a referendum could thus rekindle the conflict.
– Roland
16 hours ago
1
1
AFAIK the Good Friday Agreement gives Ireland the option to call for a referendum of unification.
– Martin Schröder
4 hours ago
AFAIK the Good Friday Agreement gives Ireland the option to call for a referendum of unification.
– Martin Schröder
4 hours ago
add a comment |
5 Answers
5
active
oldest
votes
One obvious problem with your proposal is just who gets to vote:
- Every resident of Northern Ireland, regardless of citizenship?
- Every citizen of the UK or the Republic of Ireland resident in NI?
- Every resident of Ireland, both in the Republic and Northern Ireland?
- Every citizen of the UK or the Republic of Ireland?
Picking one of those options, or yet another one, will reopen the can of worms that the Irish Question has become. Good Friday and EU integration helped to put the Troubles to rest because the differences ceased to matter except to increasingly isolated fanatics. An Irish citizen or an UK citizen could decide to live anywhere in the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, or the rest of the UK, and visit the other areas without problems.
Note that the EU27 negotiators have pretty much said that they'd go with anything that is acceptable to the Republic of Ireland. You just proposed a referendum in Northern Ireland only ...
The Belfast Agreement already specifies who gets to vote in a referendum on the status of Northern Ireland, which this would effectively be. The "real" problem is that neither the DUP nor the Tories want a vote on the status of Northern Ireland.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
add a comment |
A poll of this nature would be opposed by the DUP and other Unionist groups. If Northern Ireland were to remain in a customs union with the EU, while the rest of the UK left, it would simply shift the border from the island of Ireland to the Irish Sea. In other words the customs border would be between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
English MPs are unlikely to accept Northern Ireland trying to force the whole UK to stay in the customs union, so there would have to be a border.
Any such division with the UK would be unacceptable to Unionists, because they would consider it to be making a reunification with Ireland more likely.
add a comment |
The problem is that both options are disruptive to trade for Northern Ireland and likely to inflame sectarian tensions, not assuage them, as the options would appeal along those lines.
A further issue is that with no functioning government at Stormont, this referendum would be held by the UK government which would harm its legitimacy for some within Northern Ireland, particularly with the controversy the current Secretary of State is courting.
From the UK government's point of view, allowing such a poll on the detail of Brexit for one part of the UK, would increase demands for other parts to have their needs met and risk the integrity of the state. To paraphrase: There is no upside for them, only considerable downsides.
New contributor
add a comment |
In addition to all the other answers here, there is a fundamental problem with any vote for more than two options: different voting systems will give different answers, and there is no "right" voting system. Hence the voting system becomes a loaded question, and the people who choose the voting system can pick the one most likely to give their preferred answer.
For more on the problem of voting systems see:
Arrow's impossibility theorem for an explanation of the theoretical problem.
My answer to a previous question on this subject.
1
It's unclear that there would be 3+ options in the election which OP proposes, so this may be inapplicable.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
Arrow's impossibility theorem only applies if there are at least three options. I only see two options in the proposed vote: customs border in the Irish Sea, or customs border at the land border with Ireland.
– Mark
3 hours ago
add a comment |
I am not sure that this is the 'main sticking point' in Theresa May's deal (I'm assuming you mean that because there are plenty of negotiations taking place outside of this deal). There are several sticking points in her deal which are virulently opposed by many, most notably perhaps the £39 billion pound payout, which I believe may have garnered its own question on this forum. However the back-stop point is one that the media seems to have latched onto, and with good reason. There was a natural and logical assumption by many, irrespective of how they may have voted, that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union. I think many likewise assumed that this would not mean a hard border. Whether that was a valid assumption or not is highly debatable, but it seems to be a threat that is hanging over the head of everybody involved. That said, I think your options might have to be:
- Remain in the Customs Union - meaning no borders established whatsoever.
- Leave the customs union with no hard border at all anywhere.
- Leave the customs union with no hard border in Ireland, but established somewhere else.
- Establish a hard border in Ireland.
The first option is Theresa May's deal (as of this date, may change). The second doesn't seem acceptable to the EU and there might be WTO issues. The third is plausible but takes time to set up. I believe the last option is untenable and would never even be introduced as a motion.
I don't think your second bullet point is viable if governments on both side claim to have something like sovereignty. If the border is soft, there must be compatible regulations on both sides -- Brexit In Name Only.
– o.m.
13 hours ago
The chances of the DUP accepting a hard border within the UK, or the Republic accepting a hard border with the rest of the EU are also not high.
– origimbo
13 hours ago
I guess it is more precise to say that it is the main sticking point in the negotiations between the UK government and the EU. There are other actors outside the government that oppose the things you mention. However, I don't think that you answer the question on the idea of having a vote in NI to choose the options.
– Gremlin
12 hours ago
1
"that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union" - That was not clear at all. A range of promises were maid by the various campaigners. There are non-EU members of the customs union, including UK crown dependencies.
– James
11 hours ago
2
@ouflak Hard to say really, as the democratic process seemed to have stopped at the vote and intentions have been implied by various factions to suit particular narratives.
– James
10 hours ago
|
show 3 more comments
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5 Answers
5
active
oldest
votes
5 Answers
5
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
One obvious problem with your proposal is just who gets to vote:
- Every resident of Northern Ireland, regardless of citizenship?
- Every citizen of the UK or the Republic of Ireland resident in NI?
- Every resident of Ireland, both in the Republic and Northern Ireland?
- Every citizen of the UK or the Republic of Ireland?
Picking one of those options, or yet another one, will reopen the can of worms that the Irish Question has become. Good Friday and EU integration helped to put the Troubles to rest because the differences ceased to matter except to increasingly isolated fanatics. An Irish citizen or an UK citizen could decide to live anywhere in the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, or the rest of the UK, and visit the other areas without problems.
Note that the EU27 negotiators have pretty much said that they'd go with anything that is acceptable to the Republic of Ireland. You just proposed a referendum in Northern Ireland only ...
The Belfast Agreement already specifies who gets to vote in a referendum on the status of Northern Ireland, which this would effectively be. The "real" problem is that neither the DUP nor the Tories want a vote on the status of Northern Ireland.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
add a comment |
One obvious problem with your proposal is just who gets to vote:
- Every resident of Northern Ireland, regardless of citizenship?
- Every citizen of the UK or the Republic of Ireland resident in NI?
- Every resident of Ireland, both in the Republic and Northern Ireland?
- Every citizen of the UK or the Republic of Ireland?
Picking one of those options, or yet another one, will reopen the can of worms that the Irish Question has become. Good Friday and EU integration helped to put the Troubles to rest because the differences ceased to matter except to increasingly isolated fanatics. An Irish citizen or an UK citizen could decide to live anywhere in the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, or the rest of the UK, and visit the other areas without problems.
Note that the EU27 negotiators have pretty much said that they'd go with anything that is acceptable to the Republic of Ireland. You just proposed a referendum in Northern Ireland only ...
The Belfast Agreement already specifies who gets to vote in a referendum on the status of Northern Ireland, which this would effectively be. The "real" problem is that neither the DUP nor the Tories want a vote on the status of Northern Ireland.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
add a comment |
One obvious problem with your proposal is just who gets to vote:
- Every resident of Northern Ireland, regardless of citizenship?
- Every citizen of the UK or the Republic of Ireland resident in NI?
- Every resident of Ireland, both in the Republic and Northern Ireland?
- Every citizen of the UK or the Republic of Ireland?
Picking one of those options, or yet another one, will reopen the can of worms that the Irish Question has become. Good Friday and EU integration helped to put the Troubles to rest because the differences ceased to matter except to increasingly isolated fanatics. An Irish citizen or an UK citizen could decide to live anywhere in the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, or the rest of the UK, and visit the other areas without problems.
Note that the EU27 negotiators have pretty much said that they'd go with anything that is acceptable to the Republic of Ireland. You just proposed a referendum in Northern Ireland only ...
One obvious problem with your proposal is just who gets to vote:
- Every resident of Northern Ireland, regardless of citizenship?
- Every citizen of the UK or the Republic of Ireland resident in NI?
- Every resident of Ireland, both in the Republic and Northern Ireland?
- Every citizen of the UK or the Republic of Ireland?
Picking one of those options, or yet another one, will reopen the can of worms that the Irish Question has become. Good Friday and EU integration helped to put the Troubles to rest because the differences ceased to matter except to increasingly isolated fanatics. An Irish citizen or an UK citizen could decide to live anywhere in the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, or the rest of the UK, and visit the other areas without problems.
Note that the EU27 negotiators have pretty much said that they'd go with anything that is acceptable to the Republic of Ireland. You just proposed a referendum in Northern Ireland only ...
answered 13 hours ago
o.m.o.m.
8,69511433
8,69511433
The Belfast Agreement already specifies who gets to vote in a referendum on the status of Northern Ireland, which this would effectively be. The "real" problem is that neither the DUP nor the Tories want a vote on the status of Northern Ireland.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
add a comment |
The Belfast Agreement already specifies who gets to vote in a referendum on the status of Northern Ireland, which this would effectively be. The "real" problem is that neither the DUP nor the Tories want a vote on the status of Northern Ireland.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
The Belfast Agreement already specifies who gets to vote in a referendum on the status of Northern Ireland, which this would effectively be. The "real" problem is that neither the DUP nor the Tories want a vote on the status of Northern Ireland.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
The Belfast Agreement already specifies who gets to vote in a referendum on the status of Northern Ireland, which this would effectively be. The "real" problem is that neither the DUP nor the Tories want a vote on the status of Northern Ireland.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
add a comment |
A poll of this nature would be opposed by the DUP and other Unionist groups. If Northern Ireland were to remain in a customs union with the EU, while the rest of the UK left, it would simply shift the border from the island of Ireland to the Irish Sea. In other words the customs border would be between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
English MPs are unlikely to accept Northern Ireland trying to force the whole UK to stay in the customs union, so there would have to be a border.
Any such division with the UK would be unacceptable to Unionists, because they would consider it to be making a reunification with Ireland more likely.
add a comment |
A poll of this nature would be opposed by the DUP and other Unionist groups. If Northern Ireland were to remain in a customs union with the EU, while the rest of the UK left, it would simply shift the border from the island of Ireland to the Irish Sea. In other words the customs border would be between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
English MPs are unlikely to accept Northern Ireland trying to force the whole UK to stay in the customs union, so there would have to be a border.
Any such division with the UK would be unacceptable to Unionists, because they would consider it to be making a reunification with Ireland more likely.
add a comment |
A poll of this nature would be opposed by the DUP and other Unionist groups. If Northern Ireland were to remain in a customs union with the EU, while the rest of the UK left, it would simply shift the border from the island of Ireland to the Irish Sea. In other words the customs border would be between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
English MPs are unlikely to accept Northern Ireland trying to force the whole UK to stay in the customs union, so there would have to be a border.
Any such division with the UK would be unacceptable to Unionists, because they would consider it to be making a reunification with Ireland more likely.
A poll of this nature would be opposed by the DUP and other Unionist groups. If Northern Ireland were to remain in a customs union with the EU, while the rest of the UK left, it would simply shift the border from the island of Ireland to the Irish Sea. In other words the customs border would be between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
English MPs are unlikely to accept Northern Ireland trying to force the whole UK to stay in the customs union, so there would have to be a border.
Any such division with the UK would be unacceptable to Unionists, because they would consider it to be making a reunification with Ireland more likely.
answered 13 hours ago
useruser
7,99421734
7,99421734
add a comment |
add a comment |
The problem is that both options are disruptive to trade for Northern Ireland and likely to inflame sectarian tensions, not assuage them, as the options would appeal along those lines.
A further issue is that with no functioning government at Stormont, this referendum would be held by the UK government which would harm its legitimacy for some within Northern Ireland, particularly with the controversy the current Secretary of State is courting.
From the UK government's point of view, allowing such a poll on the detail of Brexit for one part of the UK, would increase demands for other parts to have their needs met and risk the integrity of the state. To paraphrase: There is no upside for them, only considerable downsides.
New contributor
add a comment |
The problem is that both options are disruptive to trade for Northern Ireland and likely to inflame sectarian tensions, not assuage them, as the options would appeal along those lines.
A further issue is that with no functioning government at Stormont, this referendum would be held by the UK government which would harm its legitimacy for some within Northern Ireland, particularly with the controversy the current Secretary of State is courting.
From the UK government's point of view, allowing such a poll on the detail of Brexit for one part of the UK, would increase demands for other parts to have their needs met and risk the integrity of the state. To paraphrase: There is no upside for them, only considerable downsides.
New contributor
add a comment |
The problem is that both options are disruptive to trade for Northern Ireland and likely to inflame sectarian tensions, not assuage them, as the options would appeal along those lines.
A further issue is that with no functioning government at Stormont, this referendum would be held by the UK government which would harm its legitimacy for some within Northern Ireland, particularly with the controversy the current Secretary of State is courting.
From the UK government's point of view, allowing such a poll on the detail of Brexit for one part of the UK, would increase demands for other parts to have their needs met and risk the integrity of the state. To paraphrase: There is no upside for them, only considerable downsides.
New contributor
The problem is that both options are disruptive to trade for Northern Ireland and likely to inflame sectarian tensions, not assuage them, as the options would appeal along those lines.
A further issue is that with no functioning government at Stormont, this referendum would be held by the UK government which would harm its legitimacy for some within Northern Ireland, particularly with the controversy the current Secretary of State is courting.
From the UK government's point of view, allowing such a poll on the detail of Brexit for one part of the UK, would increase demands for other parts to have their needs met and risk the integrity of the state. To paraphrase: There is no upside for them, only considerable downsides.
New contributor
New contributor
answered 10 hours ago
JamesJames
1213
1213
New contributor
New contributor
add a comment |
add a comment |
In addition to all the other answers here, there is a fundamental problem with any vote for more than two options: different voting systems will give different answers, and there is no "right" voting system. Hence the voting system becomes a loaded question, and the people who choose the voting system can pick the one most likely to give their preferred answer.
For more on the problem of voting systems see:
Arrow's impossibility theorem for an explanation of the theoretical problem.
My answer to a previous question on this subject.
1
It's unclear that there would be 3+ options in the election which OP proposes, so this may be inapplicable.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
Arrow's impossibility theorem only applies if there are at least three options. I only see two options in the proposed vote: customs border in the Irish Sea, or customs border at the land border with Ireland.
– Mark
3 hours ago
add a comment |
In addition to all the other answers here, there is a fundamental problem with any vote for more than two options: different voting systems will give different answers, and there is no "right" voting system. Hence the voting system becomes a loaded question, and the people who choose the voting system can pick the one most likely to give their preferred answer.
For more on the problem of voting systems see:
Arrow's impossibility theorem for an explanation of the theoretical problem.
My answer to a previous question on this subject.
1
It's unclear that there would be 3+ options in the election which OP proposes, so this may be inapplicable.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
Arrow's impossibility theorem only applies if there are at least three options. I only see two options in the proposed vote: customs border in the Irish Sea, or customs border at the land border with Ireland.
– Mark
3 hours ago
add a comment |
In addition to all the other answers here, there is a fundamental problem with any vote for more than two options: different voting systems will give different answers, and there is no "right" voting system. Hence the voting system becomes a loaded question, and the people who choose the voting system can pick the one most likely to give their preferred answer.
For more on the problem of voting systems see:
Arrow's impossibility theorem for an explanation of the theoretical problem.
My answer to a previous question on this subject.
In addition to all the other answers here, there is a fundamental problem with any vote for more than two options: different voting systems will give different answers, and there is no "right" voting system. Hence the voting system becomes a loaded question, and the people who choose the voting system can pick the one most likely to give their preferred answer.
For more on the problem of voting systems see:
Arrow's impossibility theorem for an explanation of the theoretical problem.
My answer to a previous question on this subject.
answered 10 hours ago
Paul JohnsonPaul Johnson
8,17041936
8,17041936
1
It's unclear that there would be 3+ options in the election which OP proposes, so this may be inapplicable.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
Arrow's impossibility theorem only applies if there are at least three options. I only see two options in the proposed vote: customs border in the Irish Sea, or customs border at the land border with Ireland.
– Mark
3 hours ago
add a comment |
1
It's unclear that there would be 3+ options in the election which OP proposes, so this may be inapplicable.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
Arrow's impossibility theorem only applies if there are at least three options. I only see two options in the proposed vote: customs border in the Irish Sea, or customs border at the land border with Ireland.
– Mark
3 hours ago
1
1
It's unclear that there would be 3+ options in the election which OP proposes, so this may be inapplicable.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
It's unclear that there would be 3+ options in the election which OP proposes, so this may be inapplicable.
– Kevin
5 hours ago
Arrow's impossibility theorem only applies if there are at least three options. I only see two options in the proposed vote: customs border in the Irish Sea, or customs border at the land border with Ireland.
– Mark
3 hours ago
Arrow's impossibility theorem only applies if there are at least three options. I only see two options in the proposed vote: customs border in the Irish Sea, or customs border at the land border with Ireland.
– Mark
3 hours ago
add a comment |
I am not sure that this is the 'main sticking point' in Theresa May's deal (I'm assuming you mean that because there are plenty of negotiations taking place outside of this deal). There are several sticking points in her deal which are virulently opposed by many, most notably perhaps the £39 billion pound payout, which I believe may have garnered its own question on this forum. However the back-stop point is one that the media seems to have latched onto, and with good reason. There was a natural and logical assumption by many, irrespective of how they may have voted, that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union. I think many likewise assumed that this would not mean a hard border. Whether that was a valid assumption or not is highly debatable, but it seems to be a threat that is hanging over the head of everybody involved. That said, I think your options might have to be:
- Remain in the Customs Union - meaning no borders established whatsoever.
- Leave the customs union with no hard border at all anywhere.
- Leave the customs union with no hard border in Ireland, but established somewhere else.
- Establish a hard border in Ireland.
The first option is Theresa May's deal (as of this date, may change). The second doesn't seem acceptable to the EU and there might be WTO issues. The third is plausible but takes time to set up. I believe the last option is untenable and would never even be introduced as a motion.
I don't think your second bullet point is viable if governments on both side claim to have something like sovereignty. If the border is soft, there must be compatible regulations on both sides -- Brexit In Name Only.
– o.m.
13 hours ago
The chances of the DUP accepting a hard border within the UK, or the Republic accepting a hard border with the rest of the EU are also not high.
– origimbo
13 hours ago
I guess it is more precise to say that it is the main sticking point in the negotiations between the UK government and the EU. There are other actors outside the government that oppose the things you mention. However, I don't think that you answer the question on the idea of having a vote in NI to choose the options.
– Gremlin
12 hours ago
1
"that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union" - That was not clear at all. A range of promises were maid by the various campaigners. There are non-EU members of the customs union, including UK crown dependencies.
– James
11 hours ago
2
@ouflak Hard to say really, as the democratic process seemed to have stopped at the vote and intentions have been implied by various factions to suit particular narratives.
– James
10 hours ago
|
show 3 more comments
I am not sure that this is the 'main sticking point' in Theresa May's deal (I'm assuming you mean that because there are plenty of negotiations taking place outside of this deal). There are several sticking points in her deal which are virulently opposed by many, most notably perhaps the £39 billion pound payout, which I believe may have garnered its own question on this forum. However the back-stop point is one that the media seems to have latched onto, and with good reason. There was a natural and logical assumption by many, irrespective of how they may have voted, that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union. I think many likewise assumed that this would not mean a hard border. Whether that was a valid assumption or not is highly debatable, but it seems to be a threat that is hanging over the head of everybody involved. That said, I think your options might have to be:
- Remain in the Customs Union - meaning no borders established whatsoever.
- Leave the customs union with no hard border at all anywhere.
- Leave the customs union with no hard border in Ireland, but established somewhere else.
- Establish a hard border in Ireland.
The first option is Theresa May's deal (as of this date, may change). The second doesn't seem acceptable to the EU and there might be WTO issues. The third is plausible but takes time to set up. I believe the last option is untenable and would never even be introduced as a motion.
I don't think your second bullet point is viable if governments on both side claim to have something like sovereignty. If the border is soft, there must be compatible regulations on both sides -- Brexit In Name Only.
– o.m.
13 hours ago
The chances of the DUP accepting a hard border within the UK, or the Republic accepting a hard border with the rest of the EU are also not high.
– origimbo
13 hours ago
I guess it is more precise to say that it is the main sticking point in the negotiations between the UK government and the EU. There are other actors outside the government that oppose the things you mention. However, I don't think that you answer the question on the idea of having a vote in NI to choose the options.
– Gremlin
12 hours ago
1
"that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union" - That was not clear at all. A range of promises were maid by the various campaigners. There are non-EU members of the customs union, including UK crown dependencies.
– James
11 hours ago
2
@ouflak Hard to say really, as the democratic process seemed to have stopped at the vote and intentions have been implied by various factions to suit particular narratives.
– James
10 hours ago
|
show 3 more comments
I am not sure that this is the 'main sticking point' in Theresa May's deal (I'm assuming you mean that because there are plenty of negotiations taking place outside of this deal). There are several sticking points in her deal which are virulently opposed by many, most notably perhaps the £39 billion pound payout, which I believe may have garnered its own question on this forum. However the back-stop point is one that the media seems to have latched onto, and with good reason. There was a natural and logical assumption by many, irrespective of how they may have voted, that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union. I think many likewise assumed that this would not mean a hard border. Whether that was a valid assumption or not is highly debatable, but it seems to be a threat that is hanging over the head of everybody involved. That said, I think your options might have to be:
- Remain in the Customs Union - meaning no borders established whatsoever.
- Leave the customs union with no hard border at all anywhere.
- Leave the customs union with no hard border in Ireland, but established somewhere else.
- Establish a hard border in Ireland.
The first option is Theresa May's deal (as of this date, may change). The second doesn't seem acceptable to the EU and there might be WTO issues. The third is plausible but takes time to set up. I believe the last option is untenable and would never even be introduced as a motion.
I am not sure that this is the 'main sticking point' in Theresa May's deal (I'm assuming you mean that because there are plenty of negotiations taking place outside of this deal). There are several sticking points in her deal which are virulently opposed by many, most notably perhaps the £39 billion pound payout, which I believe may have garnered its own question on this forum. However the back-stop point is one that the media seems to have latched onto, and with good reason. There was a natural and logical assumption by many, irrespective of how they may have voted, that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union. I think many likewise assumed that this would not mean a hard border. Whether that was a valid assumption or not is highly debatable, but it seems to be a threat that is hanging over the head of everybody involved. That said, I think your options might have to be:
- Remain in the Customs Union - meaning no borders established whatsoever.
- Leave the customs union with no hard border at all anywhere.
- Leave the customs union with no hard border in Ireland, but established somewhere else.
- Establish a hard border in Ireland.
The first option is Theresa May's deal (as of this date, may change). The second doesn't seem acceptable to the EU and there might be WTO issues. The third is plausible but takes time to set up. I believe the last option is untenable and would never even be introduced as a motion.
answered 14 hours ago
ouflakouflak
1,314612
1,314612
I don't think your second bullet point is viable if governments on both side claim to have something like sovereignty. If the border is soft, there must be compatible regulations on both sides -- Brexit In Name Only.
– o.m.
13 hours ago
The chances of the DUP accepting a hard border within the UK, or the Republic accepting a hard border with the rest of the EU are also not high.
– origimbo
13 hours ago
I guess it is more precise to say that it is the main sticking point in the negotiations between the UK government and the EU. There are other actors outside the government that oppose the things you mention. However, I don't think that you answer the question on the idea of having a vote in NI to choose the options.
– Gremlin
12 hours ago
1
"that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union" - That was not clear at all. A range of promises were maid by the various campaigners. There are non-EU members of the customs union, including UK crown dependencies.
– James
11 hours ago
2
@ouflak Hard to say really, as the democratic process seemed to have stopped at the vote and intentions have been implied by various factions to suit particular narratives.
– James
10 hours ago
|
show 3 more comments
I don't think your second bullet point is viable if governments on both side claim to have something like sovereignty. If the border is soft, there must be compatible regulations on both sides -- Brexit In Name Only.
– o.m.
13 hours ago
The chances of the DUP accepting a hard border within the UK, or the Republic accepting a hard border with the rest of the EU are also not high.
– origimbo
13 hours ago
I guess it is more precise to say that it is the main sticking point in the negotiations between the UK government and the EU. There are other actors outside the government that oppose the things you mention. However, I don't think that you answer the question on the idea of having a vote in NI to choose the options.
– Gremlin
12 hours ago
1
"that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union" - That was not clear at all. A range of promises were maid by the various campaigners. There are non-EU members of the customs union, including UK crown dependencies.
– James
11 hours ago
2
@ouflak Hard to say really, as the democratic process seemed to have stopped at the vote and intentions have been implied by various factions to suit particular narratives.
– James
10 hours ago
I don't think your second bullet point is viable if governments on both side claim to have something like sovereignty. If the border is soft, there must be compatible regulations on both sides -- Brexit In Name Only.
– o.m.
13 hours ago
I don't think your second bullet point is viable if governments on both side claim to have something like sovereignty. If the border is soft, there must be compatible regulations on both sides -- Brexit In Name Only.
– o.m.
13 hours ago
The chances of the DUP accepting a hard border within the UK, or the Republic accepting a hard border with the rest of the EU are also not high.
– origimbo
13 hours ago
The chances of the DUP accepting a hard border within the UK, or the Republic accepting a hard border with the rest of the EU are also not high.
– origimbo
13 hours ago
I guess it is more precise to say that it is the main sticking point in the negotiations between the UK government and the EU. There are other actors outside the government that oppose the things you mention. However, I don't think that you answer the question on the idea of having a vote in NI to choose the options.
– Gremlin
12 hours ago
I guess it is more precise to say that it is the main sticking point in the negotiations between the UK government and the EU. There are other actors outside the government that oppose the things you mention. However, I don't think that you answer the question on the idea of having a vote in NI to choose the options.
– Gremlin
12 hours ago
1
1
"that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union" - That was not clear at all. A range of promises were maid by the various campaigners. There are non-EU members of the customs union, including UK crown dependencies.
– James
11 hours ago
"that leaving the EU means leaving the customs union" - That was not clear at all. A range of promises were maid by the various campaigners. There are non-EU members of the customs union, including UK crown dependencies.
– James
11 hours ago
2
2
@ouflak Hard to say really, as the democratic process seemed to have stopped at the vote and intentions have been implied by various factions to suit particular narratives.
– James
10 hours ago
@ouflak Hard to say really, as the democratic process seemed to have stopped at the vote and intentions have been implied by various factions to suit particular narratives.
– James
10 hours ago
|
show 3 more comments
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7
The obvious issue would be that there was something close to a civil war going on in NI until quite recently. Both sides of that conflict can be expected to vote on opposing sides. Such a referendum could thus rekindle the conflict.
– Roland
16 hours ago
1
AFAIK the Good Friday Agreement gives Ireland the option to call for a referendum of unification.
– Martin Schröder
4 hours ago